There was an article in the Burlington Free Press yesterday about Progressive gubernatorial candidate Anthony Pollina and the spoiler argument, the claim that his presence in the governor’s race siphons votes away from the Democratic candidate, handing victory to the Republican.
Recently, there has been a growing call by Democrats in the state for the legislature to consider the votes cast for Pollina as votes for Democrat Gaye Symington and appoint her to the Governor’s Office, should Governor Jim Douglas earn less than 50% of the vote, thus sending the final decision to the legislature, per the State Constitution.
Pollina rightly points out that there is a segment of Vermont voters, who have previously supported him, that would otherwise support the Republican candidate, Governor Jim Douglas, and as such, his votes to not belong to the Democratic candidate, Gaye Syminton.
Pollina was the Progressive candidate in the lieutenant governor’s race in 2002, vying with Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican Brian Dubie. Dubie won with 41.2 percent of the vote to Shumlin’s 32.3 and Pollina’s 24.8 percent.Two years later, Dubie won re-election with 56 percent of the vote to 35.7 percent for Democrat Cheryl Rivers and 7 percent for Progressive Steve Hingtgen.
Pollina argues that if Progressives and Democrats are sharing votes, then the 17 percent drop in the Progressive vote should show a 17 percent increase in the Democrats’ vote, but the Democrats gained only 3.5 percent. He contends that means people who voted for him in 2002 voted for Dubie in 2004.
“Most Vermonters who voted Progressive two years earlier decided to vote Republican, not Democratic,” Pollina said Thursday.
Most people do not agree with Pollina’s assessment and the reason is simple. We don’t get these people.
Most of us see the candidates on a line with Republican on the right, Democratic on the left, and Progressive on the far left. The idea of simultaneously supporting the right and the far left is foreign to us.
The fact is, these people exist and there are quite a few of them. We really don’t have to understand their reasoning.
The article had an interesting, yet grossly mathematically-challenged, response.
The actual vote totals don’t prove that, however. Dubie received many more votes in 2004, but the voter turnout that year also increased by more than 75,000, bringing enough new voters into the mix that it’s impossible to declare that a certain number of 2002 voters switched allegiance. Shumlin and Pollina combined for 130,065 votes in 2002. Two years later, Rivers and Hingtgen combined for virtually the same number — 130,153.
Okay, if Polina is wrong and the Dems and Progs are fishing in the same pond, then all 75,000 new voters voted for Republican Brian Dubie. Or many of Pollina’s 2002 supporters stayed home, in which case, the new voters still skewed in Dubie’s favor.
That, folks, is even harder to swallow than the fact that there actually are people in Vermont who would vote for Anthony Pollina, yet also would vote Republican.
Here in Vermont I vote for the person, not the party is not just a bumper sticker slogan.
The only question now is whether or not these voters are unhappy enough with Gov. Douglas to turn out for Pollina.
